Vice President Kamala Harris continues to solidify her lead over former President Donald Trump in the race for the 2024 presidential election, with recent polls showing her consistently ahead by several points. Following the Democratic National Convention, Harris has maintained and even slightly expanded her advantage in multiple surveys, underscoring her growing momentum as the campaign progresses.
In a recent Ipsos/ABC News poll conducted from August 23-27, Harris holds a 50%-46% lead among registered voters and a 52%-46% edge with likely voters. These figures represent a steady continuation of her polling strength, with minimal changes from similar surveys conducted earlier in the month. The poll’s margin of error is 2 points, indicating that Harris’s lead remains firm.
A survey by Outward Intelligence, conducted from August 25-29, also highlights Harris’s position, showing her up by over five points in both two-way (52.6% to 47.4%) and five-way (49.5% to 44%) matchups that include third-party candidates. Similarly, a Wall Street Journal poll released on Thursday marks the first time in over a year that Trump has trailed in this particular survey, with Harris leading 47%-45% in a multi-candidate scenario and 48%-47% in a direct head-to-head matchup. This marks a significant shift from the previous month, where Trump held a slight advantage.
Additional polls reinforce Harris’s growing lead. A Quinnipiac poll, the first to focus on likely voters, shows Harris with a 49%-47% edge, while a Suffolk/USA Today poll, conducted from August 25-28, has her ahead by five points, 48%-43%. These results reflect a considerable swing in Harris’s favor compared to earlier in the year, where Trump had a narrow lead following a challenging debate for President Biden in June.
Other polls further confirm Harris’s upward trajectory. An Ipsos/Reuters poll, released on August 29, shows her with a 45%-41% lead among registered voters, a slight improvement from her position in late July. Meanwhile, an Economist/YouGov poll and a Yahoo News/YouGov survey both indicate Harris holding onto her lead, albeit by narrower margins, as the race remains competitive.
Morning Consult’s survey of registered voters from August 23-25 also places Harris ahead, with a 48% to 44% lead. This result aligns with a similar poll conducted before the Democratic National Convention, indicating that the event did not drastically alter the race’s dynamics but did reinforce Harris’s existing advantage.
Overall, Harris’s lead over Trump is reflected in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average, where she holds a 1.8-point edge. FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average also shows Harris with a 3.2-point lead. These figures suggest a consistent, if modest, advantage as the campaign heads into the final stretch.
However, Trump has maintained leads in some polls, particularly those conducted shortly after Biden withdrew from the race. For example, a New York Times/Siena poll conducted in late July showed Trump ahead by one point, while a HarrisX/Forbes survey in June had him up by two points. Despite these earlier leads, most recent surveys have seen Harris either overtaking or closing the gap with Trump.
Notably, Democratic enthusiasm has surged since Harris announced her candidacy, nearly doubling from 46% in June to 85% in August, according to a Monmouth University poll. Republican enthusiasm, meanwhile, has remained steady at 71%.
In critical swing states, Harris holds a two-point lead over Trump, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey conducted from August 23-27. Harris leads in six out of seven battleground states, with the two candidates tied in Arizona.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio has suggested that Harris’s current lead may be temporary, dubbing it a “Harris Honeymoon” in a recent memo. He expects this bump in the polls to subside as the race progresses and both candidates intensify their campaign efforts.
Following President Biden’s exit from the race on July 21, Harris quickly became the Democratic frontrunner, securing 99% of the delegate vote at the party’s convention in Chicago from August 19-22. She selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while Trump announced Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice-presidential pick during the Republican National Convention in July. The race remains closely watched as both sides prepare for the final push towards the 2024 election.
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